The US economy exhibited unexpected strength in the second quarter, accelerating at an annual growth rate of 2.4% from April to June. This growth demonstrated continued resilience even amidst steadily higher interest rates caused by the Federal Reserve's 16-month-long efforts to combat inflation.
According to estimates released by the Commerce Department on Thursday, the gross domestic product (GDP), representing the total output of goods and services in the economy, increased from a 2% growth rate in the preceding January-March quarter. The last quarter's expansion significantly exceeded economists' projections of a 1.5% annual growth rate.
The key driver behind the growth in the last quarter was a surge in business investment. Excluding housing, business spending recorded a robust 7.7% annual growth rate, the fastest pace since early 2022. Companies invested more heavily in factories and equipment, while increased spending by state and local governments also contributed to the economy's expansion in the April-June period.
Although consumer spending, a crucial component of the US economy, remained solid in the last quarter, it slowed to a 1.6% annual growth rate compared to a robust 4.2% pace in the first quarter of the year.
However, investment in housing experienced a decline, weighed down by higher mortgage rates.
The strong economic report led by robust business investment has reinforced the notion that the US economy is resilient in the face of the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate increases and tightening credit conditions. While higher interest rates have led to increased costs for various loans, the economy has yet to slide into the widely anticipated recession. Optimism has grown that the Fed can achieve a "soft landing," slowing the economy enough to bring inflation down to its 2% target without derailing the unexpectedly durable expansion.
Recently, the International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for US economic growth in 2023 to 1.8%, up from the 1.6% predicted in April. The IMF's upward revision suggests that the outlook for the US economy is gradually improving.
During a news conference following the Federal Reserve's latest quarter-point rate hike, Fed Chair Jerome Powell revealed that the central bank's staff economists no longer foresee a recession in the US. Previously, in March, the Fed's staff economists had envisioned a "mild" recession later in the year.
Powell highlighted the economy's resilience despite the rapid rate hikes and reiterated his belief in the possibility of a soft landing.
The robust job market is another indicator of the economy's strength, with an unemployment rate of 3.6% in June, hovering just above a five-decade low. The shortage of workers across the country, resulting from a surge in retirements after the impact of COVID-19 in early 2020, has forced many companies to raise wages to attract or retain staff.
Higher wages, job security, and consumer confidence have contributed to strong consumer spending, which accounts for around 70% of economic activity. Americans continue to spend on various activities such as travel, entertainment, and shopping.
Notably, inflation, which peaked at 9.1% in June 2022, has been consistently easing. Inflation-adjusted hourly pay saw a 1.4% increase in June compared to the previous year, the sharpest gain since early 2021.
However, while the GDP report contains encouraging signs of disinflation, the continued surge in the economy may prompt the Fed to raise rates further to address concerns about higher inflation. It remains to be seen how higher interest rates may eventually impact borrowing and potentially slow down the economy, raising the risk of a recession.
The housing market has been one of the economy's weakest links, with sales of previously occupied homes falling to their slowest pace since January. A scarcity of homes for sale and higher mortgage rates have kept potential homebuyers on the sidelines, resulting in a decline in sales compared to the previous year.
Overall, the US economy's unexpected strength in the second quarter offers hope for a continued recovery, but challenges remain, particularly in the housing market, and the Federal Reserve will continue to closely monitor economic indicators in its pursuit of a balanced approach to inflation control.